Egypt prepares to host the COP27 summit. But the UN report has not so good news to present. It seems governments’ promises to go net zero and stop climate warming, turned out to be empty promises.
Following “woefully inadequate” progress to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world is on track for an average 2.8 degree Celsius temperature rise this century, according to a United Nations report.
Net zero? Maybe another time
Representatives from around the world will gather in Egypt from November 6 to 18 to try to reach an agreement on pledges to limit warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Additional commitments made since the previous United Nations climate conference in Scotland last year have removed 0.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2e), or less than 1% of estimated global emissions in 2030, according to the annual UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report released on Thursday.
Without strengthening, current policies will likely result in a 2.8C rise in temperature by the end of the century, 0.1C higher than was predicted last year.
We had our chance, but not anymore
We had our chance to make small changes, but that time passed. Only a comprehensive transformation of our economies and societies, according to UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, can save us from accelerating climate disaster.
Based on current policies, the estimation of global emissions in 2030 is 58 GtCO2e. The gap between pledges and limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius is 15 GtCO2e per year, and it is 23 GtCO2e per year for 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The end of the century will be too late for net zero
To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, we have to cut annual emissions by 45%. It is cutting compared to current policy projections in just eight years. According to the report, transitioning the global economy to a low-carbon economy will require at least $4-$6 trillion in annual investment.
According to an independent United Nations report released earlier this week that examined the most recent pledges made by countries, 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming is likely by the end of the century.
The World Meteorological Organization reported on Wednesday that greenhouse gas concentrations rose at above-average rates last year, setting new records.